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Trump - what now for the regulated wealth management sector?

Chris Hamblin, Editor, London, 10 November 2016

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US President-elect Donald Trump has often voiced his enthusiasm for repealing the Dodd-Frank Act, enacting a new Glass Steagall Act and scrapping a possible 70% of all American federal regulations, including financial ones, but will he do so?

The Republican party platform document, released in the summer, says on page 28: "The Dodd-Frank law, the Democrats’ legislative Godzilla, is crushing small and community banks and other lenders...we support reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which prohibits commercial banks from engaging in high-risk investment."

The Clinton administration repealed that venerable law in 1999 as a sop to the country's banking interests. Republicans in Congress, most of them not sincere Trump supporters, are reportedly lukewarm at best about its restoration and might not vote for it. Their party has hung on to its domination of both houses in the recent election cycle. They do not, however, hold a 60-vote majority in the Senate and cannot therefore use such a vote to ban Democrats from trying to preserve old laws by filibustering.

In August, while on the campaign trail, Trump promised a moratorium on all new regulations from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He did not, however, unveil any plans to pressurise state (i.e. non-federal) regulators into making changes.

One casualty of the repeal of the Dodd-Frank Act might be the SEC's Office of the Whistleblower, which currently relies on that Act to attract informants with the promise of remuneration. The SEC’s whistleblower programme has awarded more than $111 million to 34 telltales since its inception in 2011. The highest award of this year was $22 million, handed over in August. The largest ever, $30 million, was awarded in 2014.

The SEC has adopted final rules for 67 mandatory rulemaking provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act on topics as diverse as private funds, the Volcker Rule, security-based swaps, clearing agencies, executive pay, asset-backed securities, credit rating agencies, specialised disclosures, and much more. It has also issued a report, in accordance with the Act, on the definition of the phrase 'accredited investor.' The overarching objective of these provisions is to promote the long-term sustainability of the US financial system; commentators are undecided about how Trump will promote this once he has removed this crucial piece of legislation from the statute book.

Another Trump promise of the campaign has been to find an 'out' clause in the Iran deal and then 'totally' renegotiate the whole thing. This sounds like a renewal of sanctions in the making and might threaten whatever small business the private banks of Europe may have built up with Iran since President Obama's relaxation of sanctions earlier this year.

Trump's mission to tax most US households less onerously, and the wealthiest ones in particular, is well-known. He proposed a wealth tax or 'net worth tax' in 1999 when commenting on the impending Bush/Gore election of the day, but this policy has not surfaced in the current century.

The Republican platform document contains further prescriptions for the future: "Sensible regulations can be compatible with a vibrant economy. They can prevent the strong from exploiting the weak. Right now, the regulators are exploiting everyone. We are determined to make regulations minimally intrusive, confined to their legal mandate, and respectful toward the creation of new and small businesses. We will revisit existing laws that delegate too much authority to regulatory agencies and review all current regulations [our italics] for possible reform or repeal."

Trump has made no pronouncements about America's expatriate tax system, but the Republican platform document says: "The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) and the Foreign Bank and Asset Reporting Requirements result in government’s warrantless seizure of personal financial information without reasonable suspicion or probable cause. Americans overseas should enjoy the same rights as Americans residing in the United States, whose private financial information is not subject to disclosure to the government except as to interest earned. The requirement for all banks around the world to provide detailed information to the IRS about American account holders outside the United States has resulted in banks refusing service to them. Thus, FATCA not only allows unreasonable search and seizures but also threatens the ability of overseas Americans to lead normal lives. We call for its repeal and for a change to residency-based taxation for US citizens overseas."

The only promise that the new president-to-be has made on the subject of personal tax is a pledge to "end birthright citizenship" of the kind that subjected Boris Johnson, London's colourful ex-mayor, to the US tax system because he happened to have been born in New York, where his parents were living at the time. The bestowal of US citizenship on anyone born in the US, whether he likes it or not, stems from a broad interpretation on the part of American judges of the 14th Amendment to the constitution which says that "all persons born...in the United States...are citizens of the United States."

It is, of course, anybody's guess whether the next president of the United States will carry out any or all of his promises. Many political commentators have denounced him on the grounds of insincerity, with the London Independent running a headline yesterday entitled "Donald Trump wins: all the lies, mistruths and scare stories he told during the US election campaign." The only safe conclusion for the moment appears to be that US politics has entered a new and more uncertain phase and the future of financial regulation, along with so many other things, is now in flux.

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