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Investors Flag Overvalued Bond Markets – UK Survey

Amisha Mehta

5 January 2016

The proportion of investors who view bonds as overvalued has jumped notably following a dip in the third quarter of 2014, according to the Valuations Index.

The proportion of investors who consider government bonds to be overvalued rose 9 percentage points to 79 per cent while the number who consider corporate bonds to be overvalued increased 7 percentage points to 73 per cent, according to the survey of 247 analysts and investors. The survey was conducted between 2 December and 15 December 2015.

“Global economic conditions remain weak meaning that there is little prospect of further significant improvement in operational earnings. The current surge in M&A activity looks like a late-cycle indicator and, while markets welcomed the Fed’s rate rise as a small step towards rate normalisation, the flattening in bond yields betrays a lack of confidence in the prospects for growth,” said Will Goodhart, chief executive of CFA UK.

Meanwhile, the number of respondents who regard emerging market equities to be undervalued rose 11 percentage points over the last quarter to 57 per cent. Meanwhile, over half view developed market equities as overvalued and only 13 per cent see the asset class as being undervalued.

“In those circumstances, a resumption of concerns about valuations across developed bond and equity markets is unsurprising. Respondents continue to regard emerging market equities as undervalued, but, if our survey had given them the opportunity to say so, they might have commented that there may be significant divergence between different emerging markets’ performance. Those that are more dependent on oil exports and on Chinese growth may find 2016 another challenging year,” said Goodhart.