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Edmond de Rothschild AM Moves Away From US Equities

Amanda Cheesley

9 December 2024

Although also believes that US firms are at the top of their game and sees opportunities in European assets which can act as a great diversifier. However, other wealth managers, such as Northern Trust Asset Management, UBS Global Wealth Management, Pictet Asset Management and Goldman Sachs Asset Management, favour US equities in 2025. See more commentary here.

Melman believes that Big Data as an investment theme will continue to dominate. “Economic resilience will be an important trend given geopolitical tensions and heighten risks of protectionism; investors should focus on companies able to withstand further disruptions to the global production chain,” he continued.

Melman highlighted how some investors view Chinese equities as no longer investable, with some wary of the country's political interventionism which is potentially unsustainable for businesses and of the major economic turnaround. Threats of US tariffs being raised to 60 per cent also weigh on China’s outlook. Nevertheless, he sees signs that the Chinese property market is stabilising following the measures implemented over the past few months. “More importantly, the Chinese authorities now have a plan to bolster the country’s deeply undervalued equity market. Household savings sitting idle in current accounts have soared in recent years,” he said. Since the stimulus package was announced new account openings have surged, boosting liquidity in Chinese equity markets. Despite its highly speculative nature, Melman said he will not be staying away from the Chinese market.

He also emphasised how European small caps struggled in 2024 due to the troubled political and fiscal situation in France, as well as the slowdown in German growth. Melman believes that Germany’s new fiscal policies will provide a welcome boost to this asset class, which is undervalued.

Melman thinks that visibility on the US bond market is set to improve over the next few months. In the meantime, he is no longer overweight in emerging market bonds, which are overly sensitive to inflation and US political developments. He is strengthening exposure to subordinated financial bonds and corporate hybrid bonds. These are issued by top rated companies and callable within the next five years. This segment of the yield curve is less reliant on the US and tied instead to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) anticipated announcements.