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Regulators should reconsider policies, suggest financiers in poll

Chris Hamblin, Editor, London, 5 May 2015

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Decision-makers in finance, markets and economics have responded to a Bloomberg News poll by stating unequivocally that the largest global banks are still too big to fail because of regulatory policies.

The Bloomberg Markets Global Poll is based on recent interviews with a random sample of 1,280 subscribers to the "Bloomberg Professional" (real-time data) service. Bloomberg believes the margin of error to be 2.7%. The survey was worldwide and done in English.

To the question "Which of the following new regulations have had the most impact on your business?" a good 40% listed the Basel capital rules on risk-weighted assets; 25% listed leverage ratios on total assets; 33% listed the Volcker Rule or some similar regulation; and 15% listed the central clearing of swaps trades. Some of the answers overlapped, which is why the total exceeds 100%.

Bloomberg News asked the question "Which of these scenarios for Wall Street’s future do you think is most likely during the coming decade?" To this, a staggering 43% thought that "shrinkage as regulation erodes business opportunities" was on the cards, while only 18% thought that collapse in another financial crisis was likely and 12% expected the status quo to continue.

Bloomberg News also asked correspondents, by posting questions to their screens, whether the largest global banks were still too big to fail? More than a quarter said yes, because the regulators were focusing on the wrong risks.

Even more - 45% - thought this was true because regulators (regulatory sign-off being a prerequisite for a major merger) had allowed them to grow too large and complex to be managed safely. Only 9% thought "no, because regulatory changes make orderly wind down possible." This is a none-too-literate reference to regulatory efforts on both sides of the Atlantic to prepare banks for collapse in an orderly fashion, if collapse ever comes. 12% thought that banks were no longer too big to fail because their debts had now come down and 8% were not sure.

On a more general note, the survey asked "To what extent has your business been affected by new regulations put in place since the financial crisis?" (Bloomberg News evidently thinks that there is no financial crisis in progress at the moment.) The responses were as follows: extensive damage and I’ve had to change jobs 4%; significant damage 35%; limited impact 46%; no impact 5%; regulatory changes are helping my business 5%; not sure 5%.

Lastly, although this has little to do with regulation, readers might like to know what the respondents to the survey thought about their pay. To the question "Are you being paid more or less than you expected when you decided to pursue a career in the financial industry?" the answers were: much more than I expected 3%; more than I expected 11%; about what I expected 33%; less than I expected 35%; much less than I expected 13%; and not sure 5%. This indicates that very few respondents, if any, were doing successful jobs in compliance.

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